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पश्चिम बंगाल में विधानसभा चुनाव को देखते हुए सभी दलों ने गठबंधन की शुरुआत कर दी है। यहां सीपीएम और कांग्रेस ने गठबंधन करके साथ चुनाव लड़ने का फैसला लिया है। सीपीएम महासचिव सीताराम येचुरी ने कहा है कि उनका मकसद सिर्फ बीजेपी को हराना है। उन्होंने दावा किया है कि टीएमसी की ममता बनर्जी सरकार से बंगाल की जनता परेशान हो गई है और इस बार चुनाव में ममता को बुरी हार का सामना करना पड़ेगा।
पश्चिम बंगाल में कुल 294 विधानसभा सीटें हैं और राज्य में वर्ष 2021 में विधानसभा चुनाव होने हैं। वर्ष 2016 में हुए विधानसभा चुनाव में टीएमसी को 211, लेफ्ट को 33, कांग्रेस को 44 और बीजेपी को मात्र 3 सीटें मिली थीं। वोट शेयर में भी बीजेपी ने लोकसभा चुनाव में शानदार प्रदर्शन किया।
बीजेपी लगा रही एड़ी-चोटी का जोर
लोकसभा चुनाव में टीएमसी ने जहां 43.3 प्रतिशत वोट शेयर हासिल किया, वहीं बीजेपी को 40.3 प्रतिशत वोट मिले। बीजेपी को कुल 2 करोड़ 30 लाख 28 हजार 343 वोट मिले जबकि टीएमसी को 2 करोड़ 47 लाख 56 हजार 985 मत मिले हैं। बीजेपी ने राज्य में मुख्य विपक्षी दल का दर्जा हासिल कर लिया। लोकसभा चुनाव परिणाम ने बीजेपी का विधानसभा चुनाव के लिए मनोबल बढ़ाया। अब बीजेपी विधानसभा चुनाव के लिए एड़ी-चोटी का जोर लगा रही है।
2016 में साथ लड़े थे कांग्रेस और लेफ्ट
बता दें कि अधीर रंजन चौधरी ही पार्टी के अध्यक्ष थे, जब साल 2016 में लेफ्ट और कांग्रेस ने एक साथ मिलकर विधानसभा चुनाव लड़ा था। हालांकि 2019 के लोकसभा चुनाव में काफी कोशिशों के बावजूद दोनों दलों के बीच गठबंधन नहीं हो सका था। 2016 में साथ लड़ने का भी पार्टी को कुछ खास फायदा नहीं हुआ था।
सत्ता के लिए दक्षिण बंगाल पर कब्जा जरूरी
देश के बड़े और आबादी वाले राज्य पश्चिम बंगाल का परिदृश्य काफी विविध है। राज्य को पांच भागों में बांटा जा सकता है। दार्जिलिंग, कूच बिहार और जलपाईगुड़ी जिलों का पहाड़ी और तलहटी क्षेत्र अलग से एक उपक्षेत्र बनाते हैं। इसके बाद उत्तरी जिले मालदा और उत्तर-दक्षिण दिनाजपुर हैं। राज्य के सेंट्रल रीजन मुर्शिदाबाद और बीरभूम तीसरा हिस्सा हैं। पश्चिम मिदनापुर, पुरुलिया और बांकुरा छोटानागपुर पठार का विस्तार क्षेत्र हैं जिसे जंगलमहल कहा जाता है।
हालांकि राज्य का सबसे बड़ा उपक्षेत्र दक्षिण बंगाल है जिसमें ग्रेटर कोलकाता शामिल है। दक्षिण बंगाल आबादी के हिसाब से भी काफी घनत्व वाला क्षेत्र है और सत्ता की चाबी भी अपने पास रखता है। दक्षिण बंगाल के कुल 19 जिलों में से 8 जिलों में पूरे राज्य की 57 फीसदी विधानसभा सीटें आती हैं।
2014 से पश्चिम बंगाल की राजनीति में धुव्रीकरण बढ़ा है। कम्युनिट पार्टी के नेतृत्व वाले वाम मोर्चे को चुनाव दर चुनाव टीएमसी से हार का मुंह देखना पड़ा। वहीं बीजेपी ने खुद को राज्य में प्रमुख विपक्षी दल के रूप में स्थापित किया। पश्चिम बंगाल में बीजेपी की बढ़त को दो चरणों में विभाजित किया जा सकता है। 2014 चुनाव में पार्टी के वोट शेयर में महत्वपूर्ण बढ़त मिली। वहीं 2019 में उसने इस बढ़त को संगठित किया और टीएमसी के वोट बैंक में भी सेंधमारी की। भले ही टीएमसी का कुल वोट शेयर सबसे अधिक रहा लेकिन पहाड़ी, उत्तर बंगाल और जंगलमहल इलाकों में बीजेपी ने उसे काफी पीछे छोड़ दिया था।
वामपंथियों के पास सिर्फ ये वोट बैंक
कुल मिलाकर पश्चिम बंगाल में वामपंथियों के पास अब सिर्फ उनका वैचारिक रूप से प्रतिबद्ध कोर वोटर आधार ही बचा है जो बीजेपी के साथ कभी नहीं जाएगा। ऐसे में बीजेपी का अपना प्रदर्शन सुधारने का एकमात्र रास्ता यही है कि वह खासकर दक्षिण बंगाल में टीएमसी के हिंदू वोटर के एक हिस्से को अपने साथ ले आए और सुवेंदु अधिकारी जैसे नेता इस काम में बीजेपी की मदद कर सकते हैं।
बंगाल में हिंदू-मुस्लिम आबादी का समीकरण
देश में जम्मू-कश्मीर और असम के बाद पश्चिम बंगाल में सबसे अधिक मुस्लिम आबादी है। 2011 जनगणना के मुताबिक, राज्य में 27 फीसदी मुस्लिम आबादी है। मुस्लिम आबादी राज्य में समान रूप से वितरित नहीं है। पहाड़ी और जंगलमहल क्षेत्रों में मुस्लिम आबादी कम है, वहीं उत्तर, दक्षिण और मध्य बंगाल में बड़ी संख्या में अल्पसंख्यक रहते हैं। मध्य और उत्तर बंगाल में मुर्शिदाबाद (66 फीसदी मुस्लिम) और मालदा (51 फीसदी मुस्लिम) दो मुस्लिम बहुल जिले हैं। वहीं उत्तर बंगाल के उत्तर दिनाजपुर में भी आधी आबादी (49.9 फीसदी) मुस्लिम है।
कांग्रेस और सीपीएम के लिए आसान राह नहीं
इसका मतलब यह भी है कि दक्षिण और मध्य बंगाल में टीएमसी की धाक हिंदू-मुस्लिम दोनों से मिले समर्थन की बदौलत है। बीजेपी टीएमसी के वोट बैंक से हिंदुओं को छिटकाने की कोशिश कर रही है तो दूसरी ओर मुस्लिम और अधिक मजबूती के साथ टीएमसी का रुख कर रहे हैं। कांग्रेस और सीपीएम मिलकर टीएमसी का मुस्लिम वोटबैंक और बीजेपी का हिंदू वोट खींचने का प्रयास कर सकती है। हालांकि यह इतना आसान नहीं होगा।
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